I resisted the temptation to have a GenAI summarize theย ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ ๐๐ฆ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ย report by Andrew McAfee (MIT). At around 20 pages long (excluding references), the report delivers on the titleโs promise in less than one hour of reading. It explains how ๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐ ๐๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐ฅ-๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ ๐ญ๐๐๐ก๐ง๐จ๐ฅ๐จ๐ ๐ฒ that is rapidly improving, becoming pervasive, and spurring complementary innovations.
To some readers, the report may not deliver many new insights, but it does neatly structure many facts and arguments. For example, I enjoyed finding multiple sources of optimism regarding GenAIโs impact on the labor market (granted, Mr. McAfee wrote this report in his capacity as a fellow at Google, but he doesnโt shy away from describing potential harm as well).
Here are some of the ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ค๐๐ญ that offer some respite from gloomy unemployment scenarios:
–ย We increasingly suffer from a ๐ฅ๐๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ ๐, which can be expected to grow as baby boomers retire. Raising productivity by means of GenAI will offer some respite.
–ย As with all general-purpose technology, GenAI can create ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐ฃ๐จ๐๐ฌ. This is not just limited to prompt engineers. Economic growth and complementary innovations drive this job creation.
–ย This time, ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐๐ซ-๐ฉ๐๐ฒ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฃ๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐๐ญ ๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ค of being replaced. People in these jobs generally have more resources to reskill and adapt.
–ย GenAI grants people without a college education, as well as less experienced people at the start of their careers, ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ค๐ง๐จ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐๐๐ ๐ and enables them to ๐๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ซ๐ ๐ง๐๐ฐ ๐ฌ๐ค๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ. Together with the previous argument, ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐๐ซ๐ซ๐จ๐ฐ, which seems to be already happening (of course, more factors are at play here).
These are a few of the arguments that, in my view, warrant cautious optimism. Nevertheless, disruption will happen. Individuals will have to reskill, and society at large will have to work hard to smooth the transition.
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